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Over the last two weeks, reports of extrajudicial police killings of civilians in Colombia have been widespread. Remarkably, several of these incidents have may have been captured on video. I analyze several in this post.
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What a bench.
While my biggest achievement during quarantine was rediscovering hand tool woodworking (including making the Spanish colonial-inspired workbench pictured above), I also made incremental progress on removing CV fluff by producing more substantial academic content.
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A Spanish-language version of my post on shotgun dispersion was published recently in Etilmercurio, under the title of «Disparar a la cara» (“To shoot at the face”).
Read MoreConsideración breve de trauma ocular con los perdigones de “goma” utilizados por Carabineros, y una discusión de estándares de anteojos de seguridad.
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Nacho Saavedra, a defensive midfielder for Club Deportivo Universidad Católica, covers his eye in recognition of Chileans who have partially or fully lost vision due to police action in the current protests.
Brief ballistic examination of potential ocular trauma with range with so-called “rubber shot” («perdigones de goma») used to suppress unrest in Chile, as well as a discussion of safety eyewear standards.
Read MoreCostanera Center monumentalizes the best aspects of Chile’s economy, a symbol of the power of capital to produce great works and to raise Chile to the ranks of the developed world. It’s also a macabre vanity project by one of Chile’s most aggressive capitalists, increasingly marked by scandal and death. It’s this dual identity that has led it to become a focal point for demonstrations in the past weeks.
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Carabinero with a shotgun (source). It is not clear to me how accurate a shotgun deployed in this manner might be, but suffice to say this is not the recommended method of employ (with its stock folded).
I use a simple Monte Carlo model of my own construction and basic statistics to demonstrate that it is almost certain that the Carabineros have been shooting less-than-lethal rounds at the faces of civilians in Chile.
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For posterity’s sake: a Spanish-language version of my previous post was recently published in Etilmercurio, under the title “¿Perdigones de goma nomás? Usando la física para caracterizar las municiones menos letales de Carabineros” (“Just rubber shot? Using physics to characterize the less-than-lethal ammunition of the Carabineros”). In addition to being in Spanish, the article contains an additional analysis using the Carabineros’ own spec sheet on their own rubber shot, which demonstrates the pellets are even more dangerous than what my own analysis would suggest.
Many thanks to Chris Harrod and Cristina Dorador, who facilitated the article’s publication, and the Etilmercurio team for their tremendous help with proofreading and publication.
Photo credit: Migrar Photo
One of the characteristic features of the last month in Chile has been the sheer volume of police gunfire on the streets. Simple physics and a rudimentary ballistic analysis shows that it’s highly unlikely that “rubber shot” used to disperse crowds is simply that.
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Many people in Chile complain about a general lack of legal and constitutional literacy among the general population. That may or may not be true; however, I will say that Chile is the only country I’ve seen where paper copies of laws are regularly found being sold on the street. I picked up my copy of the Código de Aguas (also available for free here) at a small news kiosk a block away from my apartment.
Chile’s water crisis is inextricably tied to Chile’s legal framework of water rights—emplaced under undemocratic rule—which is truly unique in the world in the sheer scale of privatization. This system has not been able to cope with increasing stress on Chile’s hydrology, largely to the detriment of communities and smallholders. Recent high-profile incidents pushed water rights to the forefront of the public consciousness, and the resulting demands for reform of water rights dovetail with the principles behind the current social mobilization.
Read MoreMore polling on the 2019 Chilean protests came out over the weekend; in addition to the weekly bulletin from Cadem, the Millennium Nucleus in Social Development (DESOC; a Chilean research center, funded by the government) released their own “Social Thermometer” regarding the present situation. Although methodologies and specific questions differ slightly, both studies are in remarkable agreement with each other, and show widespread support for the current demonstrations and the desire for profound institutional change within Chile.
My summary follows.
With respect to the protests, 85% approve of the “social mobilization” (DESOC) and 72% wish for the mobilizations and marches to continue (Cadem). Of the latter, the majority of almost all demographics—gender, age, socioeconomic background, and political orientation—wish for the mobilizations to continue. The exception is the political right, but even then almost 40% of respondents identifying as politically right-wing believe the demonstrations should continue (Cadem).
The most important issues identified by respondents are pensions, health care, and constitutional reform. Other important issues include education, labor reform, tax reform, and inequality.
The vast majority want a new constitution (DESOC - 80%; Cadem - 87%). There is broad support for a constituent assembly (DESOC - 76%; Cadem - 46% constituent assembly only, 27% a mixed constituent assembly and congressional action).
Moreso than inequality, justice is the most frequently mentioned word in terms of both what defines the current social movement, as well as the demands of said movement.
I feel sufficiently supported by data to say now: this is a tremendous movement with its roots across the entirety of Chilean society. This is not a partisan movement. You don’t get 80% of the population calling for a new constitution without support from all over the political spectrum. Everyone—rich, poor, left, right, old, young—recognize the necessity of change.
Ignore them at your own peril.
Some, but not all, of the figures follow, with my (extremely unofficial) translations.
I’ve been eagerly awaiting Cadem’s polling from the past weekend, the first from the public polling firm since curfew was imposed. Here I translate some figures from the latest report from Saturday, 25 October (available here in Spanish).
Key results (my summary):
President Sebastian Piñera’s handling of the crisis is historically unpopular. Approval of Piñera hit an all-time low of 14%, while disapproval hit an all-time high of 78%. A majority disapprove of Piñera across all demographics—which include age groups, social classes, and political inclinations. Poor management is listed as the leading reason for disapproval. Approval of Piñera’s cabinet hit a low of 11%, while disapproval hit a high of 80%. These levels have not been seen since Bachelet’s second term.
Most (72%) view the crisis as “an expression of generalized social discontent.” Similarly, the most common reason cited for acts of violence is social discontent, followed by low pensions. “Enact social change” is viewed as the main course of action the government should take, followed by “improve pensions.”
A majority of Chileans take a favorable view of efforts to restore law and order. A majority are in favor of the decision to declare a curfew (55%) and a State of Emergency/martial law (49%). The use of violence and vandalism of the Metro, as well as looting of commercial establishments, are almost universally condemned. Majorities approve of the behavior of the Carabineros (52%), Navy (47%), and Army (47%).
Political parties in the crisis are deeply unpopular. Most disapprove of the behavior of the various political coalitions and parties during the crisis, with little variation based on political orientation; no coalition/party surpasses 16% approval, nor falls below 64% disapproval.
My translations of select figures follow.
Chileans do not have the safety that I, as an American, am afforded by my constitution. Instead, the Chilean constitution—crafted under the dictatorship—exists in large part to simply preserve the power of the executive and the political class. Understanding the history of the document helps explain the growing chorus of voices demanding a constituent assembly, which is for many the only process by which the legacy of Chile’s military junta may be put to bed once and for all.
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(L) Camilo Catrillanca and (R) Andrés Chadwick. “Mugshot bias” in the media is alive and well in Chile.
Why #renunciachadwick has been trending ahead of #renunciapiñera on social networks.
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Chile’s lauded pension system is profoundly unpopular in Chile, with up to 90% of the population demanding reforms to the current arrangement. Here I explain the Chilean pension system of AFPs, and discuss why the pension grievances are at the core of the present movement for change.
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Cadem is a Chilean public polling firm that conducts regular surveys on trending topics in the nation. Recently they released results of a special report on the 2019 Chilean protests, including the declaration of a state of emergency and the imposition of the Ley Antiterrorista. For those who do not speak Spanish, here I translate into English the results of the full report, which can found here (pdf).
The report was done by telephone of 1,002 interviewees from 0900-1430 on Saturday, 19 October. This was the first day after the declaration of a state of emergency, but before the imposition of a curfew. At this point numerous Metro stations in Santiago had been destroyed by vandals, and looting of supermarkets and other stores was beginning. Unrest was primarily limited to Santiago at this time.
Furthermore, I couldn’t really translate the following figure, which is a word cloud used to answer the question, “What do you believe are the reasons that explain this spate of violence? Spontaneous results.”
![Source: CademOn the left, the biggest word is “discontent,” followed by “government,” “social,” “violence,” “[fare] hike,” “[fare] hikes,” “metro,” “inequality.”On the right, the biggest phrase is “social discontent,” followed by “political class,” …](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/59c53f72edaed8a9bd4967fe/1571887093384-BTOZEYEZXU1VL5VS0PA1/Capture.PNG)
Source: Cadem
On the left, the biggest word is “discontent,” followed by “government,” “social,” “violence,” “[fare] hike,” “[fare] hikes,” “metro,” “inequality.”
On the right, the biggest phrase is “social discontent,” followed by “political class,” “public transport,” “low wages,” “middle class,” “social inequality,” “basic services,” and “health education.”
Efforts at “truth and reconciliation” in Chile following the return to democracy failed to heal the open wounds left by the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Chile is now paying the price for this neglect.
Read MoreChileans work longer hours, for less pay, to purchase essential goods and services that are proportionally more expensive than in the “First World.”
Read MoreUS and European media aren’t even scratching the surface of the discontent behind the protests in Chile. In part 1 of a series i discuss noteworthy cases of corruption and impunity that have come to light recently.
Read MorePhotos from Campo I (Field Geology I) with students from the University of Chile in the Cajón del Maipo and Pichilemu
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